Inflation expectations of the public and businesses of Uzbekistan for the next 12 months began to grow again in November, the Central Bank said in a survey.
Price expectations last month increased to 13.7% (+0.9% percentage points compared to October) among the public, and to 12.7% (+0.7 percentage points) among businesses.
These are the highest figures since May, when gas and electricity tariffs were raised (then the public had expectations of 14%, and businesses had expectations of 12.7%).
This time, the most pessimistic sentiments regarding future inflation were in Tashkent. If in October residents predicted inflation at the level of 11.6%, then in November the average figure rose to 17.7%. Almost half of Tashkent city respondents (48%) foresee inflation of 17% and higher over the next 12 months.
The expectations of businesses in Tashkent also increased from 12.6% to 14.6%.
In November surveys among the public, the main factor that could affect the growth of prices was still the change in the exchange rate - 51% of respondents chose this option (in October - 51%). Let us recall that by the end of November, the dollar strengthened by almost 91 soums (+ 0.71%). In general, since the beginning of the year, the national currency has devalued by only 4.3% against 9.5% for the same period last year.
The rise in the price of fuel and energy resources (electricity, gas) came on top among the factors. In November, 51% (46%) of respondents said that this factor would affect the growth of prices in the next 12 months.
The rise in the price of utilities rose to second place - 51% of respondents think so (previously 47%).
The rise in the price of fuel and energy resources (electricity, gas) fell to third place. In October, 46% (47%) of respondents said that this factor would influence price growth in the next 12 months.
Among businesses, the main factor in increasing prices is also a possible change in the exchange rate - 51% of respondents (previously 50%), an increase in the cost of utilities - 49% (42%), as well as fuel and energy resources - 48% (42%).
Other factors include an increase in transportation costs - 32% (29%), an increase in wages and pensions - 29% (30%), a high level of tax burden - 25% (23%), and an increase in the cost of raw materials - 25%.
Inflation expectations among public groups with the highest income (over 15 million soums) increased from 13.9% to 17.3% (+3.4%). Respondents with an income of 10-15 million soums expect a high level of inflation (16.5% versus 14.4% in October).
People with incomes of up to 2 million soums foresee inflation for the next 12 months at 13.1% (previously 12.1%), while people without income foresee 12.1% (12.3%).
