The rise in power and gas tariffs in April 2025 will add 1.8-1.9 percentage points to the overall inflation rate. This was stated the Governor of the Central Bank, Timur Ishmetov said today at a press conference.
The Central Bank expects inflation to decrease from 9.8% in 2024 to 7-8% in 2025. According to Timur Ishmetov, this figure takes into account the increase in energy prices, which will rise again in April. In particular, the base electricity tariff (within 200 kWh per month) will increase by 33.3% - from 450 to 600 soums, and for gas - from 650 to 1000 soums (+ 53.8%).
"The inflation forecast takes into account all tariffs for energy resources, utility bills, gasoline, propane, that is, prices regulated by the state. Based on this, a forecast of 7-8% was made," Timur Ishmetov underscored.
In October last year, the Central Bank estimated the possible contribution of increased tariffs to inflation growth at 1.5-1.8 percentage points.
On January 23, the Central Bank reported that the exhaustion of the primary effects of last year's liberalization of energy prices (increased prices for gas and electricity) will lead to a significant decrease in the overall inflation rate at the end of the second quarter.
The next stage of tariff increases in April will temporarily accelerate inflation this month, the Central Bank expects.
The level of secondary (indirect) impact of these changes on core inflation will be an important factor determining the direction of monetary conditions in the future. For example, if tariff increases lead to an increase in producer costs, this may cause an overall increase in prices for goods and services. In this case, the regulator may raise the base rate.
The government of Uzbekistan intends to continue subsidizing gas and electricity prices, despite last year's and new tariff increases. In 2025, it is planned to allocate 12.3 trillion soums from the state budget in the form of subsidies for gas, electricity and heat supply. According to Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Kuchkarov, this practice is planned to be stopped only from 2028.
