The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from its June forecast, Dunyo news agency said.
Reportedly, the Uzbek economy will continue to demonstrate strong growth, supported by expanding domestic demand, stronger exports, and increased investment.
The latest data confirm the balanced development of key sectors and continued high levels of business activity. The CERR Business Activity Index showed significant growth in October of this year – 34.2% compared to October 2024.
According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbek economy grew by 7.6% in the first nine months of the year. Growth was driven by industry, services, agriculture, construction, and foreign trade, which increased by almost a quarter, while exports grew by a third. Investment increased by approximately 15%, while remittances grew by 25% compared to the previous year.
Based on current macroeconomic figures and the integrated CERR model, Uzbekistan's GDP growth is projected at 7.5%. The forecast range is 7.3-7.7%.
The analysis shows that the main factors influencing the growth trajectory are business activity, the housing market, industrial production volumes, and banking operations. A comparison of model estimates with actual data from previous years confirms that this approach accurately reflects real macroeconomic trends.
Furthermore, the Center analyzed behavioral indicators, including Google search trends. From January to October of this year, interest increased in categories such as "automobiles" (by 3%), "business and industry" (by 5.9%), "shopping" (by 8.1%), and "finance" (by 9.5%).
The forecast is based on nowcasting models, which allow for real-time assessment. This approach incorporates a wide range of data not reflected in standard quarterly statistics.
The forecast is based on an expanded database, including more than 30 key indicators on industry, services, construction, foreign trade, the financial sector, and consumer demand for the period 2017-2025.
Previously, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, together with the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF), developed a real-time macroeconomic analysis model for Uzbekistan. The project was implemented under the MUNIS program with the support of the World Bank and the Agency for Innovative Development of Uzbekistan.
The developed toolkit has become the basis for regularly monitoring GDP dynamics and improving the quality of economic policy decision-making.
According to the latest updated data published in September-October of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Uzbekistan's economy to grow by 7.3% in 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. The World Bank forecast is 6.2%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts 6.6%.
The Center added that a comparison of national and international estimates confirmed the reliability of the CERR forecast, which takes into account both structural and behavioral factors and is based on a modern macroeconomic monitoring system.
