The Board of the Central Bank decided to hold the interest rate at 14% per annum during its meeting today, the regulator's press service said.
The Central Bank noted that while headline inflation continues to trend downward—with a year-end forecast of approximately 6.5%—the pace of this decline has slowed due to intensifying external factors.
In March, annual inflation dropped to 7.1%, aligning with official projections. The regulator attributed this primarily to the "base effect" from high prices last year finally wearing off for certain goods. Core inflation, which excludes seasonal price swings and state-regulated tariffs, stood at 5.7%.
However, despite a dip in inflationary expectations in March, they still remain above target levels. Furthermore, the broad-based price reductions seen in previous months have slowed, signaling persistent inflationary pressure within the economy.
On the growth front, the Central Bank highlighted a surge in economic activity during the first quarter. Real GDP grew by 8.7%, driven by strong performance in services, construction, and trade, which suggests that aggregate demand remains a dominant force.
Factoring in the steady influx of investment—particularly foreign direct investment—the regulator has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 7–7.5%, up from the previous estimate of 6.5–7%.
The Central Bank assesses that the external economic environment remains clouded by risks stemming from geopolitical tensions, potential hikes in global oil and food prices, and rising logistics and transport costs. These factors could exert upward pressure on domestic prices via imported inflation.
Conversely, the strengthening of currencies among major trading partners, high gold prices, and a rise in export revenues and remittances are bolstering the supply side of the domestic foreign exchange market.
The Central Bank maintains that positive real interest rates are encouraging a savings-oriented mindset among the public while ensuring that credit growth remains moderate.
"Taking these factors into account, maintaining current monetary conditions will facilitate a steady decline in inflation toward the 5% target and keep inflationary expectations in check," the statement noted.
The regulator emphasized that it will continue to monitor inflation dynamics, expectations, aggregate demand, and external risks. Should factors emerge that threaten to delay the 5% target, the Central Bank is prepared to tighten monetary conditions further.
The next policy rate meeting is scheduled for June 17, 2026.
Recently, the Central Bank Governor Temur Ishmetov stated that the current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive and that raising the key rate further would be premature. According to him, "the primary concern for the regulator right now is not even inflation, but maintaining the flexibility of the exchange rate."
