The World Bank presented a new study analyzing current migration trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. The report’s presentation was attended by government officials responsible for regulating external migration and experts from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Migration remains an ongoing development challenge in Europe and Central Asia, which is currently home to 100 million migrants, accounting for one-third of the world’s migrant population. Driven by income gaps, demographic shifts, climate change, and conflicts, migration patterns are expected to continue rising globally.
As of 2023, over 80% of migration flows from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were directed toward Russia. Migration from Uzbekistan is slightly more diversified, with 57% of Uzbek migrants residing in Russia, 15% in Kazakhstan, and 10% in Ukraine.
Labor migration remains one of the key sources of income for millions of citizens in Central Asian countries. As of 2024, remittances accounted for 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP—the highest share in the world in relative terms—24% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, and 14% of Uzbekistan’s GDP.
Migrants from these countries can expect to double or even triple their earnings by working abroad, generating significant welfare gains for households across the region. For example, the report shows that the poverty rate among Kyrgyz households with an international migrant, currently below 10%, would exceed 50% in the absence of remittances. In Uzbekistan, estimates suggest that the poverty rate would rise from 9.6% to 16.8% without remittances.
The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of migration trends in the region and their policy implications. By identifying both the challenges and opportunities associated with migration, the report aims to foster a more nuanced and evidence-based debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility.
If managed effectively, migration can be a powerful and increasingly necessary tool for addressing the sociodemographic imbalances in the ECA region. However, the report notes that the full economic potential of migration remains untapped.
International coordination will ensure migration is managed effectively and its benefits are equally distributed.
Policy recommendations include:
Distinguishing between different types of migration to develop appropriate policy responses. Policies should be evidence-based and tailored to the specific needs of high-skilled and low-skilled migrants, including those seeking economic opportunities and those fleeing conflicts. Coordination at both national and regional levels is essential.
Integrating labor migration into broader competitiveness strategies to support productivity, build human capital, and boost welfare and growth. At the national level, this includes investing in active labor market programs for migrant and native-born populations and adopting selective, needs-based immigration policies.
Transforming "brain drain" into "brain gain" by making migration an explicit development policy. Origin-country governments can monitor labor market needs, implement educational cost-sharing systems to align with demand, foster public-private cooperation through Global Skill Partnerships, and incentivize the return of high-skilled migrants through labor market reforms and supportive policies.
Strengthening frameworks for safer, more formal migration. In origin countries, this includes improving domestic migrant registration systems, establishing bilateral agreements with destination countries, ensuring prospective migrants have access to accurate information about foreign work opportunities, and coordinating with host countries to guarantee social insurance and benefits portability.
