The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is advocating for mainstreaming futures and foresight approach in policymaking. UNDP recognizes that relying solely on trends analysis and data may not accurately predict long-term events. In response, UNDP advocates for robust strategies that consider alternative future scenarios to effectively address global challenges.
In Uzbekistan, UNDP has embarked on an innovative journey to apply foresight to its programme activities, with an initial focus on the Green Transition. This approach seeks to envision alternative futures and explore their implications for policy development. UNDP aims to foster collaboration by engaging government agencies, think tanks, NGOs, and the private sector, incorporating diverse perspectives into the decision-making process.
Matilda Dimovska, UNDP Resident Representative in Uzbekistan highlighted that "We are proud to announce the first exercise on Green Transition Foresight in Uzbekistan as a groundbreaking milestone. By uniting various stakeholders, we have fostered a collaborative environment that has yielded thought-provoking outcomes in the form of drivers of change, scenarios, and potential implications. Our objective is not to predict specific outcomes, but rather to stimulate critical thinking, question prevailing assumptions, and uncover influential forces that can shape policies for a sustainable future in the world of uncertainties".
Through a series of engaging online and in-person interactions from 2022 to 2023, global futurologists, UNDP experts, and government partners utilized the University of Houston's Foresight Framework. This collaborative effort involved domain mapping, scanning for signals of change, generating drivers of change, modeling alternative future scenarios, and identifying actionable ideas to support ongoing government reforms. Among the identified ideas are the development of a national tariff system, prioritizing youth involvement in the green economy, focusing on internal capacity building, and fostering cross-government coordination. For more details, read the Green Transition Foresight report [link].
Building on the insights gained, UNDP plans to continue experimentation and prototyping, allowing for the development of adaptable strategies and policies. By employing narrative scenarios, UNDP aims to ensure resilience and responsiveness to unforeseen challenges.
UNDP remains committed to providing necessary assistance in leveraging foresight and scenario-based approaches in policymaking to enable transformative change. Through these efforts, UNDP is dedicated to supporting Uzbekistan in navigating the complexities of the Green Transition and building a sustainable future.
