Wednesday, 19, June, 2024

The Central Bank conducted a survey among 35 commercial banks to identify possible systemic risks in the financial system in the first year-half of 2024.

Respondents identified the top five systemic risks that could impact the financial system:

  • high volatility of the exchange rate - 77%;
  • acceleration of inflation rates - 51%;
  • further escalation of geopolitical risks - 49%;
  • increase in the debt burden of the population - 46%;
  • risks associated with cyber attacks - 46%.

Respondents also voiced concerns about:

  • climate change risks;
  • economic recession;
  • liquidity problems;
  • risks of sanctions;
  • reduction in real estate prices;
  • concentration of assets;
  • default of large borrowers and others.

The regulator also conducted a survey to assess the likelihood of systemic risks occurring. 66% of respondents said they consider it unlikely that systemic risks will arise in the short term (0-12 months) in the financial system.

About 10% rate this probability as very high. 54% of respondents assess this level in the medium term (1−3 years) as average.

About 56% of respondents believe that the likelihood of risks occurring in the next 1-3 years (48% in the short term) has not changed compared to the previous period. 38% of respondents believe that it has increased (0−12 months).

74% of respondents have sufficient faith in the stability of the financial system in the next three years, 23% have partial faith.

On April 23, the US dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank surpassed 12,700 soums. Year-to-date, the national currency has depreciated by 3%. As of May 27, the rate was set at 12,704.67 soums.

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