The Central Bank conducted a survey among 35 commercial banks to identify possible systemic risks in the financial system in the first year-half of 2024.
Respondents identified the top five systemic risks that could impact the financial system:
- high volatility of the exchange rate - 77%;
- acceleration of inflation rates - 51%;
- further escalation of geopolitical risks - 49%;
- increase in the debt burden of the population - 46%;
- risks associated with cyber attacks - 46%.
Respondents also voiced concerns about:
- climate change risks;
- economic recession;
- liquidity problems;
- risks of sanctions;
- reduction in real estate prices;
- concentration of assets;
- default of large borrowers and others.
The regulator also conducted a survey to assess the likelihood of systemic risks occurring. 66% of respondents said they consider it unlikely that systemic risks will arise in the short term (0-12 months) in the financial system.
About 10% rate this probability as very high. 54% of respondents assess this level in the medium term (1−3 years) as average.
About 56% of respondents believe that the likelihood of risks occurring in the next 1-3 years (48% in the short term) has not changed compared to the previous period. 38% of respondents believe that it has increased (0−12 months).
74% of respondents have sufficient faith in the stability of the financial system in the next three years, 23% have partial faith.
On April 23, the US dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank surpassed 12,700 soums. Year-to-date, the national currency has depreciated by 3%. As of May 27, the rate was set at 12,704.67 soums.
