The Central Bank expects a drop in GDP growth rates in 2020 to 1.5–2.5% due to a decrease in economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic compared to 5.2–5.5% previously projected. Data provided in the review of the monetary policy regulator for the I quarter, the CB said in a report.
Earlier, the Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Jamshid Kuchkarov said that in January-March this year, the GDP grew by 4.4%, in the second quarter the decline will continue. In 2019, the Uzbekistan economy grew by 5.5%.
According to the regulator, the tourism, hotel industry and international transportation sectors will account for the most of the drop.
The Central Bank believes that in 2020, final consumption expenditures may decrease by 1.4%, and the growth of gross fixed capital formation will slow down from 34% in 2019 to 6.4% in 2020.
“At the same time, an increase in gold prices and an increase in the export of fruits and vegetables will mitigate the loss of revenues by the state budget and businesses,” the report noted.
The creation of the anti-crisis fund and its financing by, in particular, with funds from international financial institutions, according to the Central Bank, will help smooth out the negative consequences of the pandemic.
The Central Bank emphasized that uncertainty regarding the extent and duration of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy will persist.
“It is expected that against the backdrop of worsening economic conditions in other countries of the world, the volume of money remittance will significantly decrease in 2020 compared to last year,” the report said.
The Central Bank predicts a reduction in the volume of remittances to Uzbekistan in 2020 by 30–35%., this figure was at US$ 6.01 billion dollars Last year to US$ 4 billion in 2020.