Uzbekistan's GDP will grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, the Asian Development Bank said in an April 2025 outlook. The outlook also emphasized the critical role of regional cooperation in the country's development.
According to the bank, growth will be supported by sustainable development of industry and services, as well as robust domestic demand. The expected growth is the result of "the government's targeted efforts to develop key sectors of the economy, such as industry and construction," said Kanokpan Lao-Araya, ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan.
"With continued efforts to improve infrastructure and regional integration, Uzbekistan is well positioned to achieve sustainable and balanced growth in the coming years," she added.
The report projects inflation to ease to 9.4% in 2024 from 10% in 2023, supported by tight monetary policy and lower transportation costs for imported goods. However, services inflation rose to 21.8% due to higher administered prices for electricity and natural gas.
Inflation is expected to continue to slow, reaching 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, despite planned increases in energy prices. The budget deficit is projected to narrow to 4% of GDP in both years, supported by fiscal consolidation efforts and stable revenues for state-owned enterprises in the mining and quarrying sectors.
The industrial sector is forecast to grow at 7% per year, driven by external demand for food, petrochemicals, and textiles, and domestic demand for mining and quarrying products. The services sector is expected to continue its upward momentum, with growth forecast at 7.8% in 2025 and 7.9% in 2026.
The outlook highlights the importance of developing economic corridors to enhance Uzbekistan’s participation in regional value chains. As a landlocked country, Uzbekistan relies heavily on regional cooperation and integration to facilitate international trade. The government’s policy on developing transport and logistics systems is aimed at diversifying foreign trade routes, reducing delivery times and optimizing costs.
